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Thursday, September 12, 2013

Cowboys Have 87.5% Chance of Playoffs If They Beat Chiefs. Seriously.

   Tony Romo's okay.
   Dez Bryant's fine.
   And starting 2-0 would be ... playofftastic?!
   The good news continues this week at Valley Ranch, where the quarterback and the receiver dodged serious injuries and are expected to play in Week 2 at the Kansas City Chiefs. Add that to the expected season debuts of defensive end Anthony Spencer, offensive lineman Brian Waters and special teams star Danny McCray and there’s reason for genuine optimism early in 2013.
   Now, consider for a moment what beating the Chiefs would do for morale. And the prospects of a post-season appearance.
   Yep, I mentioned it. The playoffs. In September. Why?
   Because by beating the Chiefs the Cowboys would start 2-0 and, according to historical franchise odds, have an 87.5-percent chance of making this year’s playoffs.
   That’s right, in their 54-season history the Cowboys have started a season 2-0 24 times. And 21 of those times the season ended in the playoffs, including Super Bowl wins in ’71, ’77, ’92 and ’95. Of course – famously – the ’93 Cowboys won the Super Bowl despite starting 0-2 during Emmitt Smith’s contract holdout.
   Beating the Chiefs is obviously not a layup. Kansas City smothered the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 and head coach Andy Reid knows the Cowboys’ personnel after all those years in Philadelphia. But if Dallas can win their road opener, the stats and the history suggest they’ll make their first playoff appearance since ’09.
   A look at the Cowboys' 2-0 starts and how they ended ...

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12 comments:

  1. Know what's sad about this list? The 1995 SuperBowl win. Jesus has it been that long...

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    Replies
    1. Yep.....the longest drought in the history of the franchise. The one common denominator throughout the longest drought in the history of the franchise has been the general manager.

      -JC

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  2. The Cowboys have so many points-of-failure that could spell disaster for their season and Jason Garrett's head....here are the main ones.

    1. Obviously Tony Romo is the number one concern. He has missed time in several of his previous seasons, (one season ending.) Romo is tough, but he is not Superman.

    2. The offensive line. An extended or season ending injury to any of the starters (assuming Waters is serviceable), could spell disaster...and lead to a possible Romo injury as well.

    3. The defense period. Although the new scheme seems to be working after one game, a failure in a key component like Shawn Lee (who never seems to play a full season) or the secondary (which already seems suspect) could lead to disaster. The definsive line also seems to lack depth as well.

    4. Receiver. Dez Bryant seems tough (playing with messed up fingers and all) but his counterpart, Miles Austin NEVER finishes a complete season. So if Romo loses a key component or two in his receving corps, disaster could loom.

    5. Coaching. It seems like every year Garrett makes at least on or two stupid mistakes (icing his own kicker) that wind up costing wins. When you are a borderline playoff team that constantly plays on or near the bubble, you cannot afford stupid coaching mistakes.

    6. Special teams. After one week they looked great, but should one or two of the special teams studs go down, then this off-overlooked part of the game could cost them dearly in a critical situation...leading to disaster.

    I am not trying to rain on anyones playoff parade here, I am just trying to bring in a shot of realism. 2-0 means very little when you look at the big picture. That leaves 14 more games in which you must avoid one of the 6 above points from happening....

    Dave

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    Replies
    1. That's a nice little blog item right there.

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    2. Yeah but the title should be "Woulda, shoulda, coulda." There are 15 teams in the league with the same story going on. This is the NFL, land of the muddled middle.

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    3. You could have stopped at # 2. Take away the defensive scores and this team is 0-1. The KC game will tell the tale of this team...and that right soon.

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    4. Going to start signing my name to my posts now that KC has beaten us, as I thought. I accept the last anon post and all moving forward.

      Derek

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  3. Thank you RW....I might be KOTT (King of the Trolls), but I can also occaisonally write a well-thought-out, eloquently worded, post.... :)

    Dave

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  4. RW.....I kinda wish you'd have waited until after the Chiefs game to write about 2-0 playoff probability. To be honest, I'm less confident personally about this game than I was the Giants.
    -JC

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  5. Very well said Dave!!!!

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  6. Oh good.... RJ and Shan are stealing these stats from you this morning... practically reading your article on air. And of course no credit is given!

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    Replies
    1. Why even bother listening to such audio drivel.....the only time I listen to the Fan now is at 7:30 to hear Mike Fisher....after that, its Jack FM baby!!

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